2026 Social Security COLA projected at 2.2% increase

The Social Security Administration (SSA) is expected to announce a small increase in benefits for 2026 due to slower inflation. The annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will be based on data from July, August, and September and will determine the benefit increases for over 72.5 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients. For 2026, experts are projecting a COLA of 2.2%, slightly lower than the previous month's forecast of 2.3%. In comparison, the 2025 COLA was 2.5%, resulting in an average increase of about $49 per month for Social Security beneficiaries. Inflation has been lower recently, which impacts the COLA calculation. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is the key measure used for this purpose. Recent numbers showed a rise in the broader Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) of 2.9% from December 2023 to December 2024. However, the COLA uses only the inflation rates from the third quarter of each year. The average monthly Social Security check was about $1,978 in January 2025. A 2.2% COLA would increase this amount by roughly $43.53 each month, which adds up to about $522 a year. Beneficiaries may still be impacted by the rising costs of healthcare. The "hold harmless provision" helps protect low-income individuals from losing benefits if increases in Medicare Part B premiums exceed their COLA. This provision applies if their premium is deducted from their Social Security payments. Discussions continue about potentially changing the calculation method to the Consumer Price Index for Older Americans (CPI-E), which takes into account the higher medical costs faced by seniors. The current CPI-W does not weight medical expenses as heavily, which could lead to lower adjustments for retirees. As the official COLA for 2026 will not be announced until later this year, these projections can help beneficiaries plan their finances in the coming months.