Bagga forecasts market stabilization around 21,800 by June

Ajay Bagga, a market expert, believes that the economy is improving compared to last September. He expects the markets to hit their bottom by June, stabilizing around 21,800 points. He notes that some sectors, like gems, jewelry, electronics, and pharmaceuticals, may suffer due to potential tariffs from the Trump administration affecting $80 billion in annual exports to the U.S. Bagga warns that the upcoming April 2nd date could bring significant market fluctuations. He says that while some may fear a global recession due to trade wars, he remains optimistic that the markets are fundamentally stronger now. He believes a rebound is underway, although predicting short-term movements remains challenging. The expert emphasizes that not all sectors will be equally affected by tariffs. Items like electronics and pharmaceuticals, heavily reliant on U.S. exports, could face challenges. However, he expresses hope that trade negotiations might delay the implementation of new tariffs. If all proposed tariffs were imposed, it could impact India’s GDP by about 0.5%. Bagga sees potential growth in the defense sector, with planned government contracts worth three lakh crores expected to boost orders. He is also optimistic about private financial institutions, particularly private sector banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), anticipating rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of India that would help improve funding conditions. Despite these positive indicators, Bagga advises caution with investments in metals due to uncertainties in China’s economy. He supports investing in domestic cyclicals and infrastructure, which are benefiting from government spending. He believes that foreign institutional investor (FII) selling has slowed down, with improving economic conditions in India providing a more stable investment environment. However, Bagga acknowledges that uncertainties around the U.S. tariffs and trade policies can lead to market volatility. The situation remains fluid, and markets are waiting to see how events unfold in the coming months.