Balanced upset picks improve March Madness bracket success

March Madness often features surprising upsets, but picking too many can hurt your bracket. A disciplined approach is recommended, focusing on reasonable risks rather than relying on underdog wins. Data from over 19,000 NCAA bracket pools shows that players frequently overestimate upset potential, especially in smaller pools. A conservative strategy tends to yield better results, even in chaotic tournament years. In larger pools, where bonus points for upsets are available, a more aggressive strategy may be beneficial. However, smart risk allocation remains essential for success in any format.