China's rare earth dominance may significantly decline by 2035

Researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences have made a bold prediction about China's dominance in the rare earth minerals market. Currently, China controls over 60% of the world's rare earth minerals and processes more than 90% of them. However, a recent study suggests that this dominance may soon come to an end. The study, published in a peer-reviewed journal, indicates that China's share of raw materials could drop from an estimated 62% to just 28% by 2035. This decline is expected to benefit the United States the most. Through computer modelling, researchers foresee a potential decrease of up to 23% in China's rare earth minerals by 2040. The main factors driving this change are the discovery of large rare earth reserves in Africa, South America, and Australia. New mining projects in these regions could significantly alter the landscape of the industry. The study notes that China's rare earth regions, particularly in southern China, may face competition from these emerging sources. This research comes from the Ganjiang Innovation Academy in eastern China, which is a major production center for critical metals. It marks a rare admission by a state-supported institution regarding the vulnerabilities in China's control over the rare earth supply chain. Rare earth elements are essential for many high-tech products, including smartphones and electric vehicles. Because of this, China’s rare earth assets give it a significant advantage in technology and global politics. The researchers highlight that as global demand grows, Africa and Australia will develop additional reserves, while Europe is expected to join the global supply chain for rare earths.