Goldman Sachs cuts U.S. recession risk to 15% after strong jobs report

Goldman Sachs has lowered the chance of a U.S. recession in the next year to 15%. This change follows a strong September jobs report, which showed the highest job growth in six months and a drop in unemployment to 4.1%. The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 254,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September, exceeding expectations. This improvement, along with rising wages, suggests a resilient labor market despite previous fluctuations in job numbers. Goldman Sachs continues to forecast 25 basis point rate cuts, aiming for a terminal rate of 3.25% to 3.5% by mid-2025. Financial markets now see a 95.2% chance of a quarter-percentage-point rate cut in November.