India will scale back spot crude tenders significantly

Indian refiners plan to reduce spot crude tenders as Russian oil imports continue to recover despite US sanctions. In April, India is expected to receive over 60 shipments of discounted Russian crude, indicating successful adjustments in trade. State-owned Indian refiners will likely issue fewer spot crude tenders as the supply of Russian crude stabilizes. Reports suggest that more than three dozen cargoes are already secured for April. Major private refiners like Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy are set to receive additional shipments. India could import nearly 52 million barrels of Russian crude next month, following a brief decline in supply due to US sanctions. Most Russian crude shipped to India has been booked at discounts of less than $3 per barrel compared to benchmark prices. This is an improvement from earlier discounts that had dropped to $1 per barrel because of increased shipping costs from sanctions-related disruptions. Data from Kpler shows that Russia's crude exports to India have decreased slightly in 2025, down to 1.6 million barrels per day from 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024. Still, traders are hopeful for long-term stability in Russian supplies. This change in India’s oil procurement comes amid indications that the US has reduced its enforcement of sanctions, as it seeks a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine. This eased climate has allowed India to resume Russian crude imports at competitive prices. The increased stability in Russian oil shipments is likely to lessen India's dependence on expensive spot purchases, benefiting both state and private refiners. Despite ongoing geopolitical challenges, the current trend points to a more stable flow of Russian oil to India.