India's trade deficit expected to rise in fiscal 2026

economictimes.indiatimes.com — March 16, 2025 at 07:01 AM UTC

India's merchandise trade deficit is expected to increase in fiscal year 2026 due to strong domestic consumption driving up imports. Exports may decline amid a slowing global economy and potential US tariffs, according to Crisil. The service sector is projected to provide some support, as India maintains a surplus in this area. However, risks from US tariffs remain a concern, given India's higher import taxes on US goods. Despite these challenges, Crisil forecasts India's GDP growth will remain steady at 6.5% in fiscal 2026, depending on stable monsoon conditions and commodity prices.

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