Polls underestimate Trump’s support as he wins decisively in 2024 election
Polls during the 2024 U.S. presidential campaign suggested a close race, but Donald Trump won decisively against Kamala Harris. He captured key battleground states and is on track to win the popular vote, a first for a Republican in two decades. While polls in battleground states were somewhat accurate, they underestimated Trump's support in less monitored areas. For instance, polls showed Trump leading by five points in Florida, but he won by 13. In New Jersey, Harris was expected to win by 20 points but only led by 10. Experts noted that pollsters may have relied too much on past voting patterns, failing to account for shifts among Latino and young voters. Challenges in polling accuracy persist, including declining response rates and increased distrust in surveys, particularly among Trump supporters.