Pollsters face backlash after failing to predict Trump's election victory

independent.co.uk

Pollsters faced criticism after failing to predict Donald Trump's decisive victory in the 2024 election. High-profile forecasters, including Allan Lichtman and Nate Silver, both inaccurately forecasted a close race, with Lichtman admitting his errors publicly. Lichtman, known for his historical predictions, took a jab at Silver for not acknowledging his mistakes. Silver had predicted a narrow lead for Kamala Harris but later expressed a gut feeling that Trump would win. Both pollsters use different methods for predictions. Lichtman relies on a set of 13 key questions, while Silver employs statistical models based on polling data. Despite their differing approaches, both were unable to foresee the election outcome.


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