Predictions about 2024 election trends proved incorrect

A recent analysis of the 2024 election reveals that many predictions about the political landscape following Donald Trump's first term were incorrect. The findings come from the campaign firm Blue Rose Research and were discussed by former Obama aides on the podcast, Pod Save America. After Trump’s 2016 win, analysts believed his controversial comments and strict immigration policies would push away voters of color and naturalized citizens. Instead, the new study shows a surprising trend among these groups in the 2024 election. Host Dan Pfeiffer pointed out that young voters, particularly young men, are now more conservative than expected. He noted that older voters like Joe Biden supporters were more likely to back Kamala Harris than young white men. The study indicates that naturalized citizens, who make up about 10% of the electorate, shifted their support from Biden by +27 in 2020 to supporting Trump by +1 in 2024. This comes despite Trump’s past immigration policies, including a wall and a Muslim ban. Pfeiffer urged Democrats to analyze why they lost support among these voters. Additionally, the research highlights a decrease in political polarization. Moderates and conservatives among Black and Latino voters are now supporting Republicans similarly to white moderates. Pfeiffer stated that overall, the outcomes were the opposite of what was predicted after Trump’s election in 2016. The report also found that support for Trump remained steady, while support for Harris and the Democrats declined. Voters prioritized issues like the economy and healthcare, areas where Democrats had lower trust. Pfeiffer emphasized an opportunity in healthcare, noting that if Republicans do not act, millions could see rising premiums as pandemic-related support expires.