Record copper shipments to US due to tariff concerns

Commodity traders are shifting large copper shipments from Asia to the US. This is causing a rise in copper prices in the US and changes in supply chains around the world. In the next few weeks, the US could receive between 100,000 and 150,000 metric tons of refined copper. If this happens, it would set a new record. Major trading companies like Trafigura, Glencore, and Gunvor are leading this shift, and they are even securing extra storage space in places like New Orleans and Baltimore. As more copper arrives in the US, it affects global supplies, particularly in China, which consumes the most copper. Prices in the US are higher than in other countries, putting pressure on American manufacturers and raising concerns about potential trade wars. Recent statements by President Donald Trump have raised the possibility of copper tariffs due to national security reasons. This has led to increased urgency among traders to move copper to the US before any tariffs are enacted. The price difference between US copper and global prices is currently at a significant high, incentivizing traders to act quickly. Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup predict that the US may impose a 25% tariff on copper by the end of the year. Despite this, US buyers will likely continue to source copper from abroad since domestic production is only half of the total consumption. With the demand for copper booming, companies like Chile's Codelco are trying to meet heightened requests from US clients. The potential tariffs could change the trading landscape between Chile and China, with more copper moving to the US instead of Asia. This shift in supply dynamics could lead to a notable drop in copper shipments to China in the coming months. Analysts expect refined copper output in China to decrease as a result. Overall, the strong demand for copper remains a positive outlook amid this uncertainty.