Republicans consistently outperform polls in presidential elections except for 2012

Republicans have consistently outperformed polls in presidential elections since 2004, except for Mitt Romney in 2012. As the 2024 elections approach, Donald Trump is leading in national polls for the first time in his three campaigns. Historically, Trump has outperformed polls, winning by 1.1 points in 2016 and 2.7 points in 2020. Polling data suggests that early Democratic voter turnout is lower than expected, echoing trends from previous elections. Betting markets give Trump a 60.6% chance of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump is favored in five battleground states, while Harris is favored in Michigan and Wisconsin, reflecting similar trends in swing state polling averages.