Rising recession risk increases to 36% in 2025

Economic growth in the United States is expected to slow down, raising concerns about a potential recession. A recent survey from CNBC found that experts have increased the chance of a recession to 36%, up from 23% in January. The survey included 32 respondents, such as fund managers and analysts. They are worried about fiscal policies from the Trump administration, especially tariffs, which they now view as a major threat to the economy. This change in outlook has caused analysts to lower their growth expectations for 2025. The average forecast for GDP growth in 2025 decreased to 1.7% from 2.4%. This marks a significant shift after three consecutive increases in previous surveys. Experts predict GDP will recover to 2.1% in 2026. Many believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice this year, even if inflation remains high. About 75% of survey participants expect two or more rate cuts. However, there is uncertainty surrounding the Fed's decisions due to policy changes. More than 70% of respondents think tariffs negatively affect inflation, jobs, and economic growth. They also expressed concerns about factors like a trade war and cuts to government jobs, which could push the economy into recession. Overall, anxiety about the future of the US economy is growing among investors and analysts.