Rising violence in South Sudan raises civil war fears

Violence is increasing in South Sudan, raising fears of a potential return to civil war. Recent events, particularly in Upper Nile State, have shown a rise in tensions that do not appear to be driven by political leaders. Instead, local militia groups are taking action without central direction. In March 2025, the White Army, a militia representing the Nuer community, attacked government forces in Nasir County. This led to serious fighting, with nearly 50 people reported dead and many more injured. The White Army says it acted out of self-defense. The violence is linked to long-standing ethnic tensions between the Nuer and Dinka communities. The situation is reminiscent of past conflicts but is distinct. In 2013, when a civil war broke out, government troops, mainly from the Dinka ethnic group, attacked the Nuer-majority town of Nasir. The recent outbreak, however, was triggered by local provocations, such as attacks on soldiers collecting firewood, which led to further retaliation and violence. The South Sudanese government has responded with airstrikes and arrests of opposition leaders, including key figures in the oil ministry. Critics say these actions are attempts to scapegoat opposition members rather than solve the issue. The government’s narrative framing the opposition as responsible for the White Army's actions overlooks the militia’s historical independence. To prevent a return to war, experts suggest the government should pursue dialogue and demobilization efforts. Arresting opposition figures and conducting indiscriminate military actions against civilians will not help stabilize the situation. Community leaders, especially those connected to the White Army, should be included in discussions to reduce tensions. Internationally, responses to the violence have focused on condemning the actions without effective measures. The UN has called for restraint but has not fully acknowledged the complexities of the White Army’s role. There is a need for clearer stances from international bodies that challenge the government's narrative and advocate for peaceful solutions to the underlying issues.