Russia and Ukraine likely to prolong conflict over settlement

Russia and Ukraine seem to prefer continuing their war rather than quickly settling for a deal, according to a new U.S. intelligence assessment. This conclusion contrasts with President Donald Trump’s promise for a fast resolution to the three-year conflict. The assessment suggests that both countries view the drawbacks of a prolonged war as less risky than a hasty and unsatisfactory agreement. U.S. intelligence officials shared these insights during a Senate hearing focused on global threats. While both sides have discussed partial ceasefires, there is skepticism about a complete ceasefire happening soon. Officials in Ukraine and Europe consider the deadline of April 20 set by the Trump administration as unrealistic. President Vladimir Putin’s recent actions indicate he may want to extend negotiations. Recently, Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement on partial ceasefires to safeguard civilian shipping in the Black Sea and to protect energy facilities from attacks. However, the report warns that both leaders are aware of the dangers of a long conflict. A lengthy war could weaken Russia's economy and increase tensions with the West, while Ukraine risks losing western support if it makes major concessions. Moscow currently seems to have the upper hand on the battlefield, which benefits its military strategy. This ongoing war could lead to a gradual decrease in Ukraine’s position, despite efforts from the U.S. and allies to increase pressure on Russia. Additionally, U.S. intelligence expresses concern that Putin might consider using nuclear weapons. This danger stems from Russia’s failure to secure quick victories and Ukraine's attacks on Russian territory. Historically, Trump has reacted negatively to intelligence reports that contradict his views, indicating a potential ongoing conflict between the president and intelligence agencies.