Texas could lose 370,000 jobs from tariffs

Texas is expected to suffer significantly from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Analysts predict that the state could lose up to 370,000 jobs each year and see a decrease in its GDP of $46 to $47 billion. These tariffs mainly target trade with Mexico and Canada, affecting crucial sectors like construction. The strong economic ties between Texas and Mexico are a major factor in this potential impact. Mexico has been Texas's largest trading partner for nearly twenty years, purchasing $123.5 billion worth of goods in 2024. This accounts for 27% of Texas's total exports. According to Ray Perryman, CEO of the Perryman Group, the two economies are closely connected. He warned that breaking these ties will lead to significant negative effects. Canada is also a vital trade partner for Texas, with $36.6 billion in trade. This dependence means that tariffs will likely increase prices for many goods, especially in the construction sector. As Texas imports a lot of steel and timber from Canada, the new costs could make housing more expensive and affect availability. Perryman noted that tariffs disrupt a well-functioning system that has developed over many years. He believes that interfering with this system will lead to serious economic consequences that will be felt broadly.