Transfer portal increases unpredictability in NCAA Tournament

The NCAA Tournament, often called March Madness, is witnessing unpredictable outcomes, especially for top-seeded teams. This trend has intensified due to the growing impact of the transfer portal, which allows players to change schools more easily. Last year, Arizona was a No. 2 seed but was upset by sixth-seeded Clemson in the tournament. Clemson's forward Ian Schieffelin stated that "matchups" can change everything in the tournament. This year's uncertainty continues, mirroring the chaos seen in recent tournaments. Since the pandemic, lower-seeded teams have made deeper runs, surprising many experts. The average seed of teams in the Final Four has risen significantly. The last several tournaments indicate that more lower seeds are reaching crucial stages, including at least one team seeded eighth or lower in the Final Four for four straight years. In the Elite Eight, only six No. 1 seeds have made it past the Sweet 16 from 2021 to 2024. This is notably fewer than in previous years. The Sweet 16 has also seen challenges, with more teams from higher seed numbers reaching this stage. Coaches recognize that managing rosters is now more difficult. Players can profit from their name, image, and likeness (NIL), and many choose to transfer. This leads to teams needing to reestablish chemistry and dynamics each season. Analysts suggest that the situation calls for a reevaluation of the tournament format. The unpredictable nature of the tournament is a fundamental element, but it is becoming even more complex due to these changes in college basketball.