Trump would have won 2024 election with full turnout

A recent report suggests that if every registered voter had participated in the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump would have still defeated Vice President Kamala Harris. The analysis shows that Trump would have won the popular vote by 5 percentage points, compared to the actual margin of 1.7 points. The study was conducted by David Schor, a data scientist affiliated with the Democratic Party. He noted that many registered Democrats were unhappy with their party and chose not to vote. The dissatisfaction stemmed mainly from economic issues, such as the rising cost of living. Schor's firm interviewed 26 million voters during the 2024 election. They found that moderate and conservative Democrats were particularly frustrated. Many of these voters did not switch sides but chose to stay home instead. Additionally, disengaged voters, who typically did not lean toward any party, swung heavily toward Republicans. Despite Harris's performance among certain voter demographics being similar to Hillary Clinton's in 2016, she lost significant support among Hispanic and Asian voters. Schor highlighted that voters were prioritizing economic concerns over ideological issues. Public opinion has shifted significantly against the Democratic Party. Recent polls show its favorability rating at a record low of just 29%. This marks a notable drop from 49% approval when Trump left office in early 2021. Among Democrats, only 63% view their party favorably, down from 81% at the beginning of Biden's presidency. Moreover, many Democrats are divided on the party's direction. Polling indicates that 52% believe the leadership is heading in the wrong direction. In contrast, the Republican Party has maintained a favorability of 36%, with strong approval from its base. This shift in public sentiment presents a challenge for Democrats as they move forward.