US recession chances now thrice normal, warns Harvard professor
Many are asking if the U.S. economy is heading toward a recession. Harvard economist Jeffrey Frankel says the chances are now three times the normal level. He estimates that there’s about a 50% chance of recession, compared to the usual 15%. President Donald Trump has dismissed these warnings. He recently initiated new tariffs against trade partners, which some experts believe could lead to a recession. Trump is also making cuts to the federal workforce. He claims the world has been taking advantage of the U.S. in trade. The situation has raised concerns in the financial markets. Trump has threatened to impose very high tariffs on wines and spirits from Europe, which is escalating global trade tensions. These tensions, along with a decline in credit availability, could affect consumer spending and household wealth. Despite these concerns, some reports suggest that the U.S. economy is not yet in a recession. Various economic indicators still show that the economy is stable. However, falling stock prices and lower consumer confidence are raising worries about the future. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also acknowledged the possibility of a recession, noting potential near-term economic turbulence under Trump's leadership. While some experts warn of rising recession risks, Trump believes the economy is in a period of transformation.