US recession concerns rise as uncertainty grows

Some experts are concerned about a possible recession in the U.S. economy. Recently, President Donald Trump mentioned that he is not ruling out a recession and described a "period of transition" for the economy. This statement caused a big drop in Wall Street markets. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reassured investors on NBC, saying he does not expect a recession. However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a different view. He stated, “I can’t guarantee anything,” meaning he sees the possibility of a recession but believes there should be no need for one. Bessent has suggested that the economy may need a "detox period," but he previously denied that this implies a recession would happen. He said the aim is for a smooth transition instead of a downturn. Concerns about a recession have increased sharply in recent weeks. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers estimates there is a 50% chance of a recession happening soon, noting that the risk is growing. He pointed out that uncertainty in policy is causing businesses to hold back spending. JPMorgan economists have raised their predictions, now suggesting there is a 40% chance of a recession. They warn that increased tariffs could significantly affect business activities and may lead to an economic downturn. Surveys show that many businesses are delaying investments, causing revenue to drop as customers postpone purchases. Consumer spending, which is vital to the economy, is also showing signs of weakening, with recent reports indicating a greater decline than expected.