Vaping may increase youth smoking rates, study finds

E-cigarette companies are arguing that vaping is helping to reduce youth smoking rates in New Zealand. They point to a 2020 study which claims that vaping is replacing traditional cigarette use among adolescents. However, new research challenges this conclusion. The latest study, published in a journal, suggests that the earlier research was flawed. It analyzed data from nearly 700,000 high school students over 25 years, focusing on smoking trends among 14 and 15-year-olds. While smoking rates among this group have indeed dropped, the analysis shows this decline slowed down after vaping became popular in 2010. From 1999 to 2023, smoking among youth declined significantly. However, the rate of decline slowed after vaping emerged. The study found that if the pre-vaping trend had continued, about 6.6% of adolescents would have reported ever smoking in 2023, instead of the actual 12.6%. Similarly, the rate for regular smoking would have been 1.8% but was recorded at 3.0%. Some may argue that 2010 was not the best starting point for this analysis. However, the study tested various starting years and found consistent results. It also accounted for changes in cigarette prices, which did not change the findings. The 2020 study's conclusions have influenced public policy, supporting arguments against stricter e-cigarette regulations. The new research indicates that vaping could actually lead more young people to start smoking. This highlights the importance of developing effective policies that address both vaping and smoking to protect youth.